Elon Musk is going to Mars by 2030, but experts say don’t count on it

In a recent announcement, Elon Muskthe founder SpaceXhas set a new goal for human colonization on Mars by 2030. However, despite the ambitious timeline, experts in the field have expressed doubts about the feasibility of this plan.

what happened: Musk’s latest plan involves launching roughly five unmanned Starship rockets to Mars in 2026. Depending on the success of these initial missions, the first crewed missions could take place two to four years later.

This is not the first time that Musk has set ambitious goals for the colonization of Mars. In 2016, he predicted that manned missions to Mars could begin as early as 2022, Business Insider reported.

While experts see SpaceX’s timeline as ambitious and perhaps overly optimistic, they also acknowledge that it aligns with the company’s strategy of setting bold goals to advance the industry, even if they don’t always reach them.

Philip Metzger“We’ve never been this close to sending humans to Mars,” said the former NASA scientist and professor of planetary science at the University of Central Florida.

“I think Musk’s timeline is going to be a little optimistic, but even with that, we’re on the verge of a new era,” Metzger said.

The main challenge of any Mars mission is timing. Space agencies plan their missions in windows when Mars and Earth are closest to conserve fuel and resources.

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According to Musk, SpaceX plans to launch five unmanned Starship rockets to Mars in the first window of 2026. Each starship requires at least four refueling flights, which represents the need for a significant number of launches in a short period of time.

Analysts suggest that crewed flights to Mars in 2031 or 2033 are more realistic for SpaceX. They also note that the biggest hurdle Musk will face in achieving his timeline may be regulatory rather than technical.

“Mars’ exit window is limited to about one month due to planetary alignments. Musk plans to send five starships to Mars in the first cycle, requiring 25 launches in the short term.

He added: “The biggest challenge will probably be getting approval to launch the mission from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).”

Matthew Weinzierl“I would argue that whether or not SpaceX gets a crew to Mars in four to six years is more important than whether SpaceX actually tries to,” the Harvard Business School professor of business administration and space economics expert told the publication. to do ”

“This type of vision will continue to attract talent and capital to space, fueling countless innovations in the path to Mars settlement, much of which will primarily benefit us on Earth,” Weinzierl added.

Why does it matter?: Musk’s ambitious plans to colonize Mars are testament to SpaceX’s commitment to pushing the boundaries of space exploration.

However, the timeline and technical and regulatory challenges ahead highlight the complexity of such an endeavor.

The success of these missions could potentially revolutionize our understanding of space and pave the way for future interplanetary travel.

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This content was partially generated with help Benzinga Noro and reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.